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 It's time to play... THE FAMILY FEUD!By Nick, Section News
The spotlight shines on Presidential politics in Michigan again today as the State Senate was expected to pass legislation moving Michigan's primary date up to February 5th (or earlier). We've discussed before (HERE) why an early, joint primary is exactly what voters in Michigan need.
It keeps the state in the minds of Presidential candidates, it ensures our issues are a part of their policy discussions, it promises to secure dozens of visits to speak directly to Michigan voters that wouldn't otherwise happen and it allows voters, not special interests or party insiders to pick the winner. Not only do Saul Anuzis and Mark Brewer agree that it's the right thing to do but even the Detroit News and the Free Press are on the same page. There is one pesky little detail standing in the way. The House won't touch the thing (not that they could today if they wanted to, what with their extended vacation schedule) and the Governor has given no indication she'll sign it. We all know that Michigan voters are the real losers should the change not make it's way through the governor's stone wall. But there's been a lot of discussion in recent days as to where the separate Presidential camps come down on the back-up plans. On the Dem side it's simple. John Edwards wants a caucus so he can take advantage of his union support. It's his only shot against the much more popular Hillary Clinton and Barack Hussein Obama. On the GOP side it's a little more nuanced... and the discussion is getting heated. Read on...
You know how from time to time you'll get into it with your brother and while you can normally talk your way out of it every once in a while you just have to go wrestle in the backyard? Sometimes you just need to blow off a little steam. And when you're done you dust each other off, have a cold Pepsi and a good laugh about the whole thing?
Well should the joint primary fall through the MRP back-up plan is to hold a convention, a move that's ruffling all sorts of feather in all sorts of ways. If they do go to a convention they'll be holding it BEFORE February 5th, and, according to RNC rules they could forfeit the vast majority of their delegates to the National Convention. Some candidates don't mind because the momentum they could take from a Michigan win would off-set, in their minds, the loss of delegates. Some candidates think that's a pretty silly idea. And everyone has their opinion on the convention format. MRP is getting all of their ducks in a row in case things don't go the right way in the House and that includes proposing a handful of convention rules changes. Saul can't just make changes. The Party doesn't work that way. There's a "State Committee" composed of activist representatives from each of Michigan's fifteen congressional districts. Any changes to the convention rules need to be approved by the State Committee during their late August meeting. In other words, there's a committee vote coming up soon and the skirmishes have started as each Presidential camp stakes out it's position. The rules changes being discussed include:
The neighborhood is gathered together in anticipation of the backyard slug fest. Here's the tale of the tape:
America's mayor is generating a ton of attention in the blogosphere these days as his point person in Michigan, Macomb County Congresswoman Candice Miller took issue with the idea of moving anything before February 5th in a communication sent to Party leaders. Giuliani's Primary strategy is based on a big win in Florida on January 29. As Marc Ambinder notes in his Atlantic Online blog, they're pouring tons of time, attention and resources into winning big there and counting on that momentum to carry them to big wins in several of the states holding primaries on February 5. Were Michigan to move ahead of February 5 the campaign would be forced to split their time and attention between Florida AND Michigan to ensure a big win down south doesn't get blown all to heck by a defeat in the Great Lakes State. Miller's letter also takes issue with the proposed convention rules changes. That's a total smokescreen. (I love the Congresswoman but I've got to call a spade a spade.) They're trying to scuttle the convention approach by killing it with a thousand cuts. Rules changes are just one more thing to attack. Were the GOP to go the convention route perhaps no one would be helped MORE by the convention rules changes than Rudy Giuliani. The secret ballot would allow many delegates to vote Rudy without being labeled "pro-choice" by their friends and fellow activists. Limiting the power of the District Chairs to manipulate vote counts through alternate elevation would also give them a shot to pick up a few extra apportioned votes, especially in Oakland County.
I've confirmed through multiple sources that the Arizona Senator's camp is actively petitioning the state party to hold a primary or convention specifically before February 5. They view the Giuliani Florida strategy as a good one for the Mayor and think a McCain win in Michigan might go a long way towards bolstering the Senator's appeal nationally and scuttling Rudy's efforts on Super Tuesday. But any public support for a primary is completely bogus. They may have a few surrogates and activists who would like to see a primary on principle but McCain's remaining Michigan operation, specifically consultant Jon Yob, see a convention as the best shot at a win for their team. In fact, should MRP go the convention route McCain becomes the prohibitive favorite. And you can quote me on that. Jon's dad Chuck, the RNC National Committeeman from Michigan is best known as a master conventioneer. McCain also boasts the most powerful block of District Chairmen in the state. Their roster of chairmen knows how to twist arms, steal a vote or three (dozen), ask for a recount until they get a better result and physically intimidate the opposition on the convention floor. They are vehemently opposed to the proposed rules changes and they'll be fighting tooth and nail right through August's meeting. Some of these guys play dirty (Chuck Yob himself admits it's started to get out of hand) and they're good at it.
Like McCain, his team is actively campaigning (behind closed doors, of course) for a pre-February 5 primary or convention and for the same reasons... they need to scuttle Rudy's momentum. But unlike the Giuliani camp they seem to be convinced they'd stand a chance on the convention floor. That might have something to do with the fact they're the only campaign in the state with a large, experienced and well trained field team already on the ground working to lock up convention votes a half a year in advance. Without the rules changes, though, in a convention they're finished and most of his boosters will admit that, off the record. Of course all of this convention talk pre-supposes that the Governor and Andy Dillon will actually disenfranchise millions of voters across the state by refusing to draft or sign legislation moving up the primary. For the sake of a little thing I like to call "democracy" I hope it doesn't get to that point.
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