Tag: redistricting

The 19th, you'll remember, was technically vacated at the beginning of the year when Mark Schauer broke his word to his constituents and took a seat in Congress, becoming a part of what polling data consistently tells us is one of the least popular legislative bodies in American history.  

Our readers in Calhoun and Jackson Counties, their friends and neighbors, have been without representation in Michigan's upper legislative chamber for the last one-hundred-plus days and will be until the end of 2009.  The Granholm-Cherry administration, fearing a potential partisan swing in the District and an expanded GOP majority in the Senate, delayed announcing a special election for months.  

Remember, they've got a lot more than one Senate seat to lose.  Whoever winds up being the incumbent in the 19th come the 2010 general elections will have a leg-up on the challenger.  Should the Democrats lose the 19th their path to taking control of the Senate becomes significantly more difficult with nothing less than the holy grail of legislative tasks at stake... redistricting.  

Whoever controls the Supreme Court and the state Senate come January 2011 will control legislative redistricting and partisan electoral potential for the next decade.

The man who has the liberals spooked?  Mike Nofs.

Read on...

Last November Schauer unseated an incumbent Republican and is now a part of the largest Democratic majority of this generation.  That's a win for the Dems, any way you cut it.

It would be similarly silly to argue, though, that Schauer's sudden absence in Lansing hasn't saddled the left with a glaring (and likely very expensive) problem at the worst conceivable time.

Michigan has been trending bluer in recent years with Democrats holding both seats in the Senate, a majority in the Congressional delegation, the Governor's office and an overwhelming numerical superiority in what was, until recently, a Republican state House.  The GOP held the state Senate in 2006 by only a few thousand total votes and currently enjoys a tenuous 21-16 majority.

Control of the upper chamber after the 2010 general elections is critical since the Senate will be a major player in redrawing the state's legislative districts for the next ten years.  

For this reason more than any other, conservatives at the state and national level are thrilled about the prospect of picking up a seat and an "incumbent" designation when voters go to the polls early this November.

Former state Representative and law enforcement vet Mike Nofs has already all-but sealed up the Republican nomination for a run at the 19th state Senate district while the Democrats could very likely be staring down the barrel of a drawn out primary between bitter rivals from the state House.  

Nofs is a solid conservative with an impressive resume and a reputation as a bi-partisan problem solver.  He's also a proven vote-getter in the one largely Democratic portion of the District, the Battle Creek area (home to Kellogg's Company).  Had Schauer remained at home he likely would have faced a serious challenge from Nofs in 2010.  The Republican's chances look that much better without having to worry about a seasoned incumbent.

State Democrats aren't willing to go down without a fight, though, and are expected to bring out their "big guns."  Kalamazoo billionaire and gay-special-rights extremist Jon Stryker poured millions in soft money into legislative races in 2006 and 2008, purchasing monumental liberal gains in both chambers.  

With an entire decade of electoral advantage on the table in the 19th this fall, he is widely expected to spend more and politic dirtier.  Democrats simply can't afford this loss this year.  It'd almost be enough to make a Party wish they'd done without one extra member in Congress.